Dire California Poll Jolts Democrats

California Democrats just got a reality check: even in their strongest state, voters are drifting—and the bench behind Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris looks shakier than the party wants to admit.

Quick Take

A major UC Berkeley/LA Times poll found about 40% of registered voters are still undecided in California’s 2026 governor’s race after Harris declined to run.
Among voters who picked someone, Democrat Katie Porter led at 17%, while Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was next at 10%.
Californians showed more enthusiasm for Newsom than Harris as a 2028 presidential option, and majorities opposed another Harris presidential run.
Cost of living topped voter concerns, reinforcing that kitchen-table pressures are driving politics more than slogans.

A Wide-Open Governor’s Race Exposes Democratic Uncertainty

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted with the Los Angeles Times in mid-August 2025, and released August 26, showed a striking level of indecision in the contest to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. Roughly 4 in 10 registered voters said they were undecided, even with the filing deadline approaching in March 2026. That uncertainty grew after former Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would not run for governor.

Among voters who chose a candidate, former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter led with 17% support, while Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco drew 10%. The poll also highlighted what drives volatility: many voters simply “don’t know much about candidates,” according to the survey’s analysis and expert commentary cited in coverage. In practical terms, that leaves room for late momentum, big fundraising, and higher-name-recognition figures to reshape the field quickly.

Harris Steps Aside, and the Party’s Star Power Looks Diminished

Harris’s decision not to run for governor removed what many Democrats once assumed would be a dominant candidate in California. Earlier polling in 2024 had shown Harris leading a hypothetical field, but the 2025 reality is different: she’s not on the ballot, and voters are not coalescing around a clear successor. Harris said she did not want to “go back in the system,” a line that underscored how much the party’s leadership class is recalculating after 2024.

The same poll release underscored why Democrats are nervous about Harris’s next move nationally. Californians reported stronger enthusiasm for Newsom as a potential 2028 presidential contender than for Harris, and majorities said Harris should not run for president again. That matters because California is not just a state; it’s a fundraising engine and a political megaphone. If Democratic voters at home are lukewarm, it complicates any attempt to rebuild national credibility.

Newsom’s 2028 Interest Rises as California’s Problems Stay Front and Center

Newsom can’t run again for governor, but the poll’s 2028 findings keep him in the national conversation. Californians expressed more enthusiasm for Newsom than Harris as a future presidential candidate, a key data point as Democratic strategists search for a post-Biden identity. Still, survey commentary described Newsom’s standing as a “mixed bag,” suggesting visibility doesn’t always translate to deep support when voters look at results on the ground.

Voters’ top issue signals why: cost of living ranked first, and broader measures of economic pressure—housing and day-to-day affordability—dominated the public’s concerns. That focus helps explain why a flashy national brand is less compelling than competent management. For conservatives watching from outside California, the poll reads like an indictment of governance that prioritizes progressive activism while families feel squeezed by prices, taxes, and housing costs.

Trump-Era Federal-State Conflict Looms Over the Next Governor

The governor’s race is unfolding amid sharper conflict between California leadership and President Trump’s administration. Coverage tied the state’s political environment to federal actions and threats, including immigration enforcement activity and disputes involving funding and penalties. That backdrop gives Democrats a familiar foil, but it also forces them to defend a record in a state many voters believe is becoming less affordable and less orderly—especially on crime, taxes, and immigration.

Huge wake up call for Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris as dire poll released https://t.co/4lPMUYYAMa pic.twitter.com/z8zYGl02mN

— New York Post (@nypost) March 9, 2026

Republicans, meanwhile, have a clearer lane than they’ve had in years: a wide Democratic field, high undecideds, and a GOP candidate with law-enforcement credentials already polling near the top tier. The poll does not guarantee a Republican win—California’s registration advantage for Democrats remains real—but it does confirm an opening. With months until the March 6, 2026 filing deadline, the defining question is whether voters demand practical fixes or return to the same personalities and policies.