$24 Trillion Bombshell: CBO Debt Shock

Washington’s latest debt warning reads like a slow-motion attack on the country’s financial freedom—one that could leave taxpayers funding interest before funding America.

Story Snapshot

The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. will run $24.4 trillion in deficits from 2026-2036, exceeding total historical deficits from 1789-2023.
Debt held by the public is projected to hit 120% of GDP by 2036, topping the post-World War II record of 106%.
Annual deficits are projected to rise from $1.9 trillion in FY 2026 to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
Net interest costs are projected to surge to about $2.1 trillion per year by 2036, consuming more than one-quarter of federal tax revenue.

CBO’s Deficit Projection Puts the U.S. on a Historic Debt Track

The Congressional Budget Office released its 2026-2036 fiscal outlook on February 12, 2026, projecting $24.4 trillion in new deficits over the next decade. The outlook pegs the FY 2026 deficit at about $1.9 trillion and shows annual red ink climbing to roughly $3.1 trillion by 2036. The same projections point to gross federal debt near $63.7 trillion by 2036 and debt held by the public at 120% of GDP.

The report’s headline comparison is what should jolt voters: the projected $24.4 trillion decade-long deficit would surpass all cumulative deficit spending recorded from 1789 through 2023. That scale matters because it signals a structural problem, not a one-off emergency. The projections also arrive during a period described as relative stability, not a major war or deep recession—meaning the country is borrowing heavily even without the usual national crisis justification.

Spending Outruns Revenue, and the Gap Becomes Permanent

The underlying picture is a persistent mismatch between what the federal government plans to spend and what it expects to collect. Over the projection window, spending rises from about 23.1% of GDP in 2025 to 24.4% by 2036, while revenues move only from about 17.2% to 17.8%. That gap translates into deficits averaging around 6.1% of GDP—well above the often-cited 3% level many analysts treat as a rough sustainability marker.

The CBO outlook and outside fiscal analysts also highlight how mandatory spending dominates the budget’s future. By 2036, programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and net interest are projected to account for roughly 73% of total federal outlays. When mandatory spending and interest consume nearly all federal revenues, Congress gets boxed in: lawmakers either squeeze everything else, raise taxes, or borrow more—each option carrying real economic and political consequences.

Interest Costs Become the Quiet Driver of Government Growth

The most punishing line item in the projection is net interest. CBO-linked reporting and fiscal watchdog analysis project interest costs rising to about $2.1 trillion annually by 2036—more than double the roughly $1 trillion level seen in 2025. Interest is projected to exceed one-quarter of total tax revenue by 2036, a benchmark that signals less money available for core functions. For conservatives who prioritize limited government, this is government growth in its least accountable form: paying creditors.

Higher borrowing also interacts with the broader economy through rates. The projections anticipate the 10-year Treasury yield rising from about 4.1% in 2026 to roughly 4.4% by 2031, increasing the cost of everything from mortgages to small-business loans. CBO projections show real GDP growth around 2.2% in 2026 before slowing toward about 1.8% longer term, and inflation moving higher in the near term before easing—suggesting that near-term stimulus does not erase long-run debt math.

Policy Assumptions, Political Narratives, and What’s Still Unclear

Several summaries of the outlook point to policy choices—especially the 2025 tax-and-spending package often referenced as OBBBA, tariff revenues, and immigration-related fiscal impacts—as factors influencing the trajectory. The important takeaway is not which party gets the better talking point, but that the published baseline assumes many current policies continue. Analysts also flag that alternative scenarios could worsen the picture, including outcomes where tariffs are invalidated or temporary provisions become permanent, pushing debt even higher as a share of GDP.

Between now and 2036, the Congressional Budget Office projects $94.6 trillion in federal spending against $70.2 trillion in revenue, a decadelong deficit of $24.4 trillion. https://t.co/wu0qe1cWoh

— reason (@reason) February 19, 2026

For a Trump-era Washington facing these numbers, the conservative test is whether leaders can restrain spending growth without breaking promises to seniors or loading the burden onto working families through hidden inflation and interest. The CBO does not prescribe solutions; it shows the trajectory. With debt projected to blow past the World War II-era record by 2030 and reach 120% of GDP by 2036, the warning is that delay itself becomes a policy choice—one that shifts costs to taxpayers and future retirees.