What Lies Ahead for Syria After Assad’s Era Ends?

Black and red chess pieces on a board.

Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, emerges as a key figure in Syria’s transition as his group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captures Damascus following President Bashar al-Assad’s departure.

At a Glance

  • Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, leads HTS in capturing Damascus.
  • HTS, despite its jihadist roots, is positioning itself as a moderate force for governance.
  • Syrian rebels celebrate Assad’s fall, marking the beginning of a new era.
  • Challenges lie ahead in establishing political stability and initiating reconstruction efforts.

The Fall of Assad and Rise of HTS

In a dramatic turn of events, Syrian rebels have overthrown the government of Bashar al-Assad, celebrating their victory as they enter the presidential palace in Damascus. The fall of the Assad regime came after a swift offensive through the country, leaving Syrians with a mix of jubilation and uncertainty about the future.

At the forefront of this transition is Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Al-Sharaa’s decision to use his real name in recent official communications signals a strategic shift as HTS attempts to shed its jihadist image and present itself as a legitimate governing force.

From Jihadist to Political Leader

Al-Sharaa’s journey from a jihadist fighter to a political leader has been marked by significant transformations. Born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia, his path began in Iraq, where he was linked to al-Qaeda and later the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). In 2011, he founded the al-Nusra Front in Syria, initially aligned with ISI but later distancing himself from their extreme tactics.

In a series of calculated moves, al-Sharaa severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, rebranding his group as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, and later as HTS in 2017. This evolution reflected a broader strategy to gain political legitimacy and distance the group from its terrorist designations by the UN, US, UK, and other nations.

Establishing Governance in Idlib

Under al-Sharaa’s leadership, HTS became the dominant force in Idlib, establishing the “Syrian Salvation Government” (SG) as its political arm. This move was aimed at legitimizing HTS’s rule and showcasing its ability to provide stability and governance.

However, HTS’s rule has not been without controversy. The group has faced criticism for authoritarianism, suppressing dissent, and marginalizing other militant factions. In response, HTS initiated reforms, including disbanding a controversial security force and establishing a “Department of Grievances” to address public concerns.

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

As Syria enters this new era, the challenges of political stability and reconstruction loom large. Al-Sharaa’s strategy emphasizes pragmatism and moderation, aiming to reconcile Islamist identity with broader demands for freedom and coexistence. This approach may signal a shift towards a more politically flexible form of “jihadism,” potentially marking a new chapter for global jihad movements.

The international community watches closely as Syria navigates this transition. The success of al-Sharaa and HTS in uniting rebels has strengthened their position, despite calls for al-Sharaa to step back due to his jihadist past. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this new leadership can effectively steer Syria towards reconciliation, development, and lasting peace.

Sources:

  1. From Syrian jihadist leader to rebel politician: How Abu Mohammed al-Jolani reinvented himself
  2. With Syria’s Assad gone, his PM agrees to hand power to rebel administration
  3. Syrian rebels celebrate fall of Assad regime